How to lose a coalition

I'm not writing about the "Coalition of the Willing" in Iraq or the coalitions found in parliamentary democracies. Rather, I'm talking about the voter coalition required to gain a majority of electoral votes in an American presidential election.

George W. Bush and the Republicans control the White House and Congress because they have offered hope for progress on national security, empowering taxpayers, and reforming the judiciary. Americans voted Republican because of these issues and despite GOP abandonment of the concept of secure borders and shrinking the Federal government.

Some conservatives (Pat Buchanan types) voted Republican despite being isolationists because taxpayer empowerment and court reform compensated for the war. Other, libertarian conservatives (Boortz and Reynolds types) voted Republican despite placing little importance on judicial reform because they felt the empowerment of taxpayers was extremely important.

Now we have the Senate compromise on judicial appointments, in which the Republicans have basically abandoned the idea of judicial reform because they cannot muster enough loyalty in the ranks. We also have social security reform moving all too slowly, faith based social services a failed program, and Democratic obstructionism (actually, a darn good holding action) killing the prospect of any legislative victories at all.

And the Buchanan conservatives are asking: "I tolerated the Iraq war and the open borders for this?"

And the libertarian conservatives are asking: "I've put up with Republican moralizing and and continued bloated government for this?"

And when the Senate races come up in 2006 and the presidential race in 2008, many of these voters are going to ask: "Should I take time off work to vote for these guys again?"

Unless the GOP manages to makeup for the judiciary defeat disguised as a compromise, they will have grim prospects in the upcoming election cycles.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE (Wed., 5/25/05, 7:58 PM)

Tom Carter puts things in a somewhat calmer perspective here; while Rob Huddleston has good takes on the situation here and here. I agree with him. Frist isn't the cause of this disappointment; McCain is. However, Frist was in charge of Senate Republicans and is going to take heat for not keeping his cohorts in line. This will hurt him in 2008.